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2005 1 ~ 5 pharmaceutical industry Commentary

Number of visits: Date:2010年11月29日 13:45
 Industry fundamentals Dynamic Review 1,2005 1 ~ May pharmaceutical industry achieved sales revenue 156.233 billion yuan, up 19.91 percent from a year earlier picked up 5.01 points; a net profit of 13.282 billion yuan, up 16.91 percent, with the same period last year rebound 8.9 points. Which is still the best performance of proprietary Chinese medicines and chemical drug manufacturing, which reversed the chemical medicine situation, in sales growth 25.09%, while profits increased by 22.98 percent, while the same period last year profit growth target -13.85%. The most robust performance of the manufacturing sector remains a proprietary Chinese medicines, sales and profit growth rate reached 28.18% and 25.03%, but the data and compared to last year, a subtle change, the accelerated growth in sales at the same time, profit growth slightly a decline in manufacturing chemical agents also reversed the situation last year stagnation in sales growth 11.95% while profit growth reached 20.95%, a little higher than the profit growth in income growth situation, but due to the reform Committee will once again lower the price of antibiotics, chemical agents will be on the sub-sector will have a negative impact on again. Molecular pharmaceutical industry profits rebounded significantly industry 2, we believe that in 2005 the current medical environment of competition and comparison fierce; pharmaceutical industry sales still maintained a relatively rapid growth momentum, an increase of around 10 per cent, the differentiation and drug prices increased the cost of drugs will further strengthen the degree of concentration of industries Therefore, the pharmaceutical industry on our investment, a strong selection of the leading enterprises to make long-term investment, can continue to enjoy relatively stable income. 3, the State Development and Reform Commission recently will be another significant lower their costs through: China from 1997 to date a total of substantially reduced drug prices 15 times, involving nearly 20 billion yuan. Our country is in May 1999, the development of the country's basic medical claims catalog, from May 2001 began its first catalog Medicare drug price cuts, in May 2001 to the end of 2004, the National Development and Reform Commission is composed of seven awarded out re-approved the basic medical insurance to the national directory of the highest retail price of medicines has lowered the national Medicare directory highest near 1,100 kinds of medicines retail price of the provincial departments in charge of prices in accordance with pricing requirements, and their local medicines procurement tender, but also significantly reduced its some provinces of the retail prices of medicines. From 2001 to date, the average price cut medicines in more than 15%, cumulative price cuts worth about 30 billion yuan. The cuts directly limit the terminal retail prices, squeezing the prices in the circulation link between profits space, and will indirectly affect prices for certain products, some of the main hospital prescription varieties speaking, if lower profits space, doctors recommend drugs would reduce the enthusiasm and affect their market sales. Moreover, the national doctors kickbacks for now management is also very strict, and therefore, those relying mainly on marketing enterprises rebate to support this year's sales were quite big blows. Sales and profit fell rather rapidly, the investment of such enterprises should take an evasive attitude. From the long view, the State Development and Reform Commission will be lower antineoplastic agents, anti-pharmaceutical prices, cardiovascular medicine, these policies on the edge of the impact remains to be seen, but on the psychological factors affecting the market will be quite big, so we in these after the promulgation of the policy of making investment may be more room for arbitrage, in the present does not recommend for investment. 4, while raw materials and energy prices, increased production costs, the export tax rebate rate downward impact on corporate profits, and so is the main reason for decline. Characteristics of raw materials for medicine, market demand and by the international competitiveness of its impact in the next few years will be to sustain the stable growth, we propose to be the right investment. But despite chemical drug profits restorative growth, but prices are not very optimistic, low-priced strategy will increase competition, thus continuing the momentum would not read too. The continuous orders will not cause large swings in performance, therefore, the investment in these enterprises suitable for a band operation. 5, Chinese medicine industry growth accelerated in 2004 Chinese patent medicine industry in sales income 71.7 billion yuan, an increase of 19.45%, total profit growth of 20.72 percent. The overall gross profit margin of Chinese medicine industry has maintained a stable state, its profit growth mainly relies on a brand, product unique sustained and stable growth companies driven by, like clouds white medicinal powder, East Azerbaijan Ejiao, Tong Ren Tang. But this enterprise retail terminals and control capability is whether we can continue the important basis for investment. 6, medicine prices to take the lead in the field of pharmaceutical distribution reshuffle. We believe that the circulation of drugs price competition would intensify the circulation system and the chaotic situation in the pharmaceutical industry bring enormous pressure on the industrial chain. Although the pharmaceutical industry circulation enterprises concentrated in gradually increase, but by the pharmaceutical industry prices and the impact of the tender procurement model, the gross margin decline, more deadly is 2005 medicine distribution areas open to foreign investment, the flow of Chinese medicine reorganization of the field again facing the possibility. We believe that the present large-scale drug circulation enterprises do not have the ability to integrate with strong earnings capacity, therefore, medicine and circulation enterprises, we think we should avoid. 7, from the present situation, the impact of China's pharmaceutical industry led after the promulgation of the policy of the industry entry barriers raise, but industry capacity utilization rates, product line similar, issues such as the lack of innovation in the short term can hardly be resolved. Nearly 85 percent of Chinese drug consumption concentrated in hospitals, the pharmaceutical market in the profit distribution to hospitals at the core. Most pharmaceutical companies lack differentiate products, have to pay a higher cost of sales, medical institutions to stimulate consumption, and cost of sales will further increase the rate of phagocytosis profit margins, makes pharmaceutical industry as a whole did not have a better investment value. Other aspects: There are many reasons for the hold down prices, industry over-competition, low-level redundant production is the source of delay is the key reform of the circulation system, the pharmaceutical industry investment value of overvalued. National drug prices have control center was set up, carding down prices hold industry will become the main focus of the future, no policy will directly influence the direction of the company's investment value in the policy uncertainty, the current high valuation of the circumstances, most medicines listed company, or reduction of more active. In addition, the current pharmaceutical distribution channels difficulties, the industry is very tense capital, liquidity is mainly SMEs more difficult, and thus a relatively large impact on the operation of Chinese medicine production enterprises with sales, therefore, we have pharmaceutical production enterprises this year the difficulties should be fully expected.

TypeInfo: Dynamic Industry

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